MIXORA CONCEPT
Base-rate neglect
Giving too little weight to how common an outcome is before considering case-specific evidence.
A vivid test result or detailed description can dominate judgment even when the underlying event is rare. Good reasoning combines the prior frequency with how diagnostic the new evidence is.
What “Strong evidence” means
The core definition or effect is well established across authoritative standards, foundational research or a broad research literature. The label does not make every practical prediction certain.
VISUAL EXPLANATION · MARKER BOARDA rare paint defect should not become the default diagnosis merely because its symptoms sound memorable.
Using a base rate does not mean ignoring individual evidence; it supplies the starting point that evidence updates.
What proportion of comparable cases had this outcome before seeing the new clue?
A formal way to represent uncertainty or long-run regularity, depending on the interpretation used.
→thought × bridgeRepresentativeness heuristicJudging probability by resemblance to a familiar category or story, sometimes with too little attention to base rates.
→thoughtAvailability heuristicJudging frequency or likelihood partly by how easily examples come to mind.
→thought × bridgeEvidenceInformation that raises, lowers or otherwise constrains rational confidence in a claim.
→SOURCES & TRUST
References
Last reviewed
- 01Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesAcademic source
Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman · 1974 · Science
Classic account of representativeness, availability and anchoring in judgment under uncertainty.
What the source labels mean
- Primary source
- Original work, experiment, standard or historical text.
- Academic source
- Scholarly research or review published for an academic audience.
- Reference source
- An expert standard, encyclopedia or institutional explanation that summarizes a field.
- General reference
- A practical specialist resource useful for application, but not treated as decisive research by itself.