MIXORA CONCEPT
Availability heuristic
Judging frequency or likelihood partly by how easily examples come to mind.
Memorable, recent or vivid events are easier to retrieve and can feel more common than they are. Direct records and base rates can counter this effect.
What “Strong evidence” means
The core definition or effect is well established across authoritative standards, foundational research or a broad research literature. The label does not make every practical prediction certain.
VISUAL EXPLANATION · MARKER BOARDOne dramatic paint failure may feel more representative than twenty quiet successful mixes.
Easy recall can reflect real frequency, but it can also reflect vividness or recent exposure.
What does the full record show beyond the examples that came to mind first?
A simplifying strategy or rule of thumb used to make judgments or solve problems efficiently.
→thought × bridgeAttentionSelective prioritization of some information for processing or action.
→thoughtProbabilityA formal way to represent uncertainty or long-run regularity, depending on the interpretation used.
→SOURCES & TRUST
References
Last reviewed
- 01Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and BiasesAcademic source
Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman · 1974 · Science
Classic account of representativeness, availability and anchoring in judgment under uncertainty.
What the source labels mean
- Primary source
- Original work, experiment, standard or historical text.
- Academic source
- Scholarly research or review published for an academic audience.
- Reference source
- An expert standard, encyclopedia or institutional explanation that summarizes a field.
- General reference
- A practical specialist resource useful for application, but not treated as decisive research by itself.