MIXORA CONCEPT
Probability
A formal way to represent uncertainty or long-run regularity, depending on the interpretation used.
Probabilities make confidence more precise and revisable. A useful forecast also needs a deadline and a rule for deciding whether it occurred.
What “Strong evidence” means
The core definition or effect is well established across authoritative standards, foundational research or a broad research literature. The label does not make every practical prediction certain.
VISUAL EXPLANATION · MARKER BOARDSaying 70% likely communicates more than ‘probably’ and can later be checked across many forecasts.
A 70% event failing once does not by itself prove the estimate irrational.
What evidence would move this estimate by at least ten percentage points?
A state in which available information does not determine one outcome, explanation or confidence level with certainty.
→thoughtInductive reasoningReasoning in which evidence supports a conclusion to some degree without guaranteeing it.
→thoughtAnchoringInsufficient adjustment of a judgment away from an initial value or reference point.
→SOURCES & TRUST
References
Last reviewed
- 01Inductive LogicReference source
James Hawthorne · Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
How evidence can support a conclusion without guaranteeing it.
What the source labels mean
- Primary source
- Original work, experiment, standard or historical text.
- Academic source
- Scholarly research or review published for an academic audience.
- Reference source
- An expert standard, encyclopedia or institutional explanation that summarizes a field.
- General reference
- A practical specialist resource useful for application, but not treated as decisive research by itself.